What is the appropriate human population for our planet? This is something I think about a fair amount. What makes this a complicated issue is whatever the appropriate number should be is based on changing conditions. The right number could be different in the future than it is today. There is also a qualitative component that can differ based on your perspective. That being said, what I feel confident about is our current population is higher than it should be today. I believe overpopulation is our most important issue amongst a number of very difficult challenges. Further, overpopulation contributes to a number of our most pressing challenges.
Our population is currently about 7.6 billion according to the United Nations. In 2050 the UN estimates the population will be 10.9 billion and 11.8 billion by 2100. In 1927 the world population was two billion. I find the rate at which the population has grown in less than 100 years to be very alarming. Now I am certainly no expert on this matter, but the following is an exploration of various aspects of this phenomenon.
Birth and death rates are the two fundamental metrics that determine population growth. It is no mystery that today there are more people being born than dying. This has obviously been the net condition for all human existence. We are a lot like the proverbial rabbit. Within the last fifty years and likely continuing for the next fifty years, there is a compounding effect accelerating population with high birth rates in significant portions of the existing population, exacerbated by longer life spans. The result has been nearly a five-fold increase in our population in the last 100 years. If we do not act, the growth will continue to be algebraic in the next 100 years and beyond.
Short of some catastrophic incident, we probably won’t, and can’t, impact death rates. So, how do we impact birth rates? This is a complex issue and effecting results will be difficult and slow. That being said, I think there is also a basic simplicity to the answer which is just being good humans. When we look at places where modern and democratic society is well established, birth rates tend to be lower. So what contributes to high birth rates? Let’s start with basic rights for women. Regrettably, women are second class humans in a shockingly large portion of our planet. And even in modern society, they deal with second class challenges. Equal rights and standing would go a long way in reducing birth rates. This is a tall order and will likely take a long time to change and improve. We will likely double or triple our population before women are truly equal citizens in all parts of the world.
I believe religion is a primary reason for the lack of equality we find this condition in a shockingly big portion of the planet. “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you” is a Christian and religious axiom that has unequal application across the planet, particularly for women. In ‘third-world’ countries where religion is strong, women are far from equal. One of the primary outcomes of this condition is high birth rates. Further, many religions promote large families for no other reason than to grow the ranks of the church, often under the guise of God’s will. From a cultural perspective, we need to move to a world that is secular.
Pew Study finds Mormon Families are the largest In America.
Politically, we desperately need all countries to be democratic and support equal rights amongst the sexes, race and economic status. The United States has long been the model for the rest of the world. However, over the last few decades, there has been an erosion of the ‘every vote counts’ concept. Whether it is the flaw of the Electoral College, gerrymandering, greater influence by corporations as a result of lobbying and Citizen’s United, and ‘dark’ money, they have all negatively impacted the will of the people. On a global basis, there was optimism that democracy seemed likely to be the primary political model for a growing number of countries. Recently, that optimism has waned.
Education is another important condition and an opportunity that can have a significant impact on birth rates. In a society where women are educated, birth rates are lower. Why? Education provides women with economic and social opportunities, instead of just reproduction and motherhood. Practically, girls are busy when they are going to school. They have a sense of hope for their future. Further, they are likely to get sex education which can impact accidental pregnancies. Education may be our best and most effective tool in the short-term to curb high birth rates.
I don’t wish death on anybody and generally support causes that reduce the likelihood of death from a perspective of fundamental goodwill toward others. I will fight my own death for as long as I can because I think we have only one shot at this and I am generally happy and lucky. This however creates a conflict of ideas for me. When I see in the news that people have died, I must confess there is a little part of me that thinks this is good. Now there are fewer people. Beyond single events, there are social issues I embrace but only contribute to a growing population. An example of this conflict of ideas would be guns. I strongly believe we need gun control in America, and anywhere else that doesn’t have it. If you look at the issue by itself, in a modern world, it is hard to reconcile killing each other. Guns provide an opportunity to make killing easy, spontaneous and efficient. However, from a population perspective, murder and war ‘thin the herd’ in a meaningful way.
Another area I am very interested in is autonomous driving. I love to drive and fancy myself as a pretty good driver. However, when you put a lot of people together and ask them to drive, you get chaos and inefficiency. Living in Southern California, I get to experience this result with some regularity. And if you really look at the need for human driving, you can only conclude that it is a colossal waste of time. Autonomous driving provides hope for efficient transportation, the elimination of car ownership and the opportunity to use this time in more productive ways. However, from an overpopulation perspective, vehicle deaths have an impact on the population. Also, our inefficient transportation contributes to pollution and climate change which is killing large numbers as well. Whether guns, cars or the many other things that our modern lifestyle does to kill us, we should not have to retard progress to slow population growth. Wishing for a smaller population based on our current condition, chance or fate is not a great strategy.
Technology has and will continue to impact population growth, both positively and negatively. One advancement that I believe will have a significant impact with respect to slowing population growth is the internet. Today’s youth have grown up in the era of the internet and have been socialized in a way that I believe will lessen the importance and need for marriage and family. The internet provides an endless source of entertainment or at least distraction, that can and often is consumed in isolation. We can now communicate in a manner that does not require the participants to be physically together. For my generation, this experience is somewhat of a substitute for community and socialization. I think our youth sees this not as a substitute, but at minimum a normal condition. And many I think actually prefer it. Further, we can now receive a growing list of many of life’s staples without leaving one’s residence. The interest and need for human interaction are diminished in meaningful ways. And this condition is only going to get stronger.
Maybe the greatest potential impact on population reduction is porn. For men, easy access to porn now allows for hassle-free and convenient sexual release with significantly fewer challenges men have had in past generations. We are already seeing a reduction in marriage in many industrialized countries, and while I do not think porn is the sole reason, it certainly will be a significant contributor. The internet allows us to be, and arguably promotes selfishness. Inconvenience and immediate gratification are easily achieved in many important segments of our daily lives. Relationships, marriage and family are hard, messy and inconvenient. For those who have access to technology, procreation becomes less important. And we are not far away from the planet’s entire population having access to the internet and a digital lifestyle.
Endemics, epidemics, and pandemics are conditions that could have a big impact on the population and according to many scientists, are more and more likely as the population grows. We have had a number of historical events including two major Bubonic Plagues ( 541 and 1346) killing more than 50 million people in a time when the population was small; estimates are 25 to 60% of the European population died. Major cholera outbreaks (1852 and 1910) resulted in millions of deaths. The flu (1889, 1918, 1956 and 1968) resulted in anywhere between 20 to 50 million deaths. The HIV AIDS virus has killed more than 35 million lives primarily between 2005 and 2013 and continues to kill people today. These numbers are both significant, but as the population continues to grow, potentially have a smaller and smaller proportional impact. However, diseases have and will be more lethal. Medicine will have a more difficult time curbing and eradicating disease in the future due to a number of issues like overuse of antibiotics, dense populations, travel, poverty and environmental conditions. We have recently had a potential deadly Ebola epidemic and almost a pandemic. There is a good chance that we will see an event that will be severe, move quickly and have vast lethal consequences.
Environmental pollution and Climate Change will impact populations mostly in a negative way; Mother Nature fights back! Unfortunately, we are poisoning both the planet and ourselves at an alarming rate. Whether it is our landscapes, our indoor lives, our ‘progress’ often comes with either unintended or known consequences. There are some signs of hope that we can live in a cleaner and safer world, but a couple of centuries of our industrial revolution, entrenched interests in dirty industries and our ever-growing population will make cleaning up our planet very challenging. The population will suffer because of it.
Scarcity is going to be a crisis in the not so very distant future. We have already seen a number of events recently that have highlighted the severity and impact that scarcity of resources will have on our growing populations and society. Many people believe the Arab Spring began in late 2010 when a Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire. However, prior to this event, Tunisia which is a major importer of food due to arid land struggled to import needed quantities of food driving up prices. Further, in 2010 there was a global food crisis due to poor growing conditions as the result of both drought and too much rain for the major food exporters around the globe. This exacerbated unrest in a region that was already struggling both economically, politically and culturally. The result was wide-spread unrest in the region resulting in protest and death. Some countries looked to moving toward liberalization but ultimately resulted in authoritarian regimes gaining control and clamping down on the population even harder.
The fact is our planet has finite resources. We in theory overuse those resources that can be naturally replaced on an annual basis after about eight months; Earth Overshoot Day is generally in early August. As our population grows, and those resources diminish, this day will come earlier and earlier. There may be some opportunities to mitigate this reality with technology. Agriculture is an industry that is making great leaps and investment to grow better food with significantly less water, focused nutrients and in some instances, no soil at all. Having a steady and secure source of food elevates struggles around a critical life staple. However, finite resources is a reality that is hard to wiggle out of with a population that already exceeds the sustainable capabilities of our planet.
One way to relieve the pressure of overpopulation is to become an interplanetary species. There are significant efforts underway to go to Mars as the start of this process. We will likely have ‘permanent residency’ on the red planet in the next twenty years. There will also be populations living in ‘space stations’ whether orbiting Earth, other planets or just exploring the Universe. Many think that if we are to survive the next extinction event, this is the only way to ensure the human species continues.
So how does this all end? It feels like there are probably two outcomes. The first is that the population is reduced significantly by some catastrophic event or series of compounding events. Pandemics and war seem to be the two most likely ‘culling’ events. The war option being the result of our general destructive and aggressive nature for the battle over resources. The latter I think is more likely to be the catalyst and certainly as time goes on with the impact of climate change, we will fight for a shrinking pool of resources needed to survive.
The ‘half full’ outcome is that we manage and support our unnaturally large population through innovation and technology. This likely will include a multi-planetary opportunity to allow a ‘release valve’ to our current single option called planet Earth.
I suspect our future includes generous portions of both death and opportunity. Good luck to us all!